Friday, September 19, 2008

Feeling better

I've been studying for the GMAT for the past three weeks but am taking it tomorrow and will be on top of this blog at least until the election, hopefully longer.

Glad to see that the Jesus Mommy bounce has passed and that Barack is creeping back over the top. I follow Electoral Vote religiously, and with the 30 new presidential polls out today, we can clearly see the bounce and the Jesus Mommy honeymoon is over. Toss PA into the Obama column (PA went for Kerry, Gore, and Clinton in the last four elections with no significant demographic changes) and Obama has the 270 necessary to win this election if everything stands as it is today. Which of course is an assumption, a big one, but it's a good sign. The whole election pretty much comes down to Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico, according to the site, and Obama only needs to win one of those (or both of CO and NM). Colorado and New Mexico leaning towards Obama right now, so...

Ronald Brownstein of the National Journal wrote a piece on the state of five key swing states that Bush won in 2004 based a new polling data (given below). The states are Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia. In his view, Obama must win at least one or two of these to have any chance of winning. Currently he has a lead of 7 points in New Mexico while Colorado, Florida, and Ohio are essentially tied, and McCain leads by 7 points in Virginia.

It's amazing to me how little Americans understand about American politics. Rightwingers were pointing to bounce polls and patting themselves on the back for winning the election. Meanwhile, Obama hardly had a bounce because of the Palin announcement the next day.

A lot of time until the election. Today's polls were taken pre-Meryll Lynch, Washington Mutual. Morgan Stanley is set to buyout Wachovia. If Americans think for a second that the lack of regulation that caused this country's financial crisis is going to change under John McCain, well, there's just no hope for this country.

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